Ten years following the UK entered into a hasty referendum that polarised the country and unleashed turmoil, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two prominent writers from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially contentious and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can build support rapidly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate
The duo have examined the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the topic with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose results have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely divided society where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won don't know exactly what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue this point is approaching, and a group called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity if and when there will be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has obscured the absence of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in universities but scarcely any elected officials or advocates are willing to participate with the basics. For instance, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, none of the commentators endorses unification or the current situation. Both composes two essays that strive for neutrality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering financial and social figures, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Arguments range over national emblems, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The objective is to inform and provoke discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there has not yet occurred a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Debate implies an acknowledgement of the idea that there might be valid points on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they favour unity but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin must determine what the proposal from Irish nationalism is aside from just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
McBride believes a national vote in his generation is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a feckless official who says: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, justified perspectives, he stated. "One side will succeed in this matter and the other side will ultimately not succeed but each side has has valuable insights to acquire from the alternative viewpoints."
Call for Broader Debate
Westminster must join the debate, stated O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish question."
