Elections are now in progress for general elections in Holland, with recent surveys suggesting that the anti-immigration firebrand Geert Wilders and his Freedom party (PVV) could once again emerge victorious, though analysts suggest PVV stands little chance of joining the future coalition.
Survey Results and Election Dynamics
Wilders' party, which previously achieved a shock first-place finish and established a four-party all-conservative government that collapsed within a year, is currently slightly leading in surveys and is forecast to secure between 24 and 28 seats in the 150-seat house of representatives.
However, PVV's support has dipped since the previous election, when it won 37 seats. All major parties have publicly ruled out forming a government with the PVV leader, and who precipitated the collapse of the previous government in the summer amid a dispute concerning his controversial immigration proposals.
Major Parties and Projections
At the end of a campaign dominated by topics such as migration, medical expenses, and the nation's severe housing shortage, the centre-left Green Left/Labour party alliance, led by ex-EU official Frans Timmermans, is placed a near second, expected to win between 22 to 26 parliamentary seats.
Also forecast to do well is the centrist Democrats 66, projected to boost its representation by almost five times to 21 to 25 seats, while the right-leaning CDA is anticipated to significantly increase its seat tally to between 18 to 22.
Members of the previous government – comprising the Freedom Party, VVD, BBB, and centrist New Social Contract (NSC) – are all projected to see their representation reduced, with several facing heavy losses.
Voting Process and Fragmentation
Under the proportional Dutch system, securing just 0.67% of the vote yields a party a seat in parliament. Of the 27 parties participating in the vote – including senior-focused parties, youth parties, animal rights parties, for a universal basic income, and sports parties – up to 16 may gain entry to the legislature.
This significant division means that no single party is expected to secure a majority, and the Netherlands has been governed by coalitions – often including several groups in recent governments – for over 100 years.
Government Formation
The PVV leader claimed that "the democratic process would end" in the Netherlands if the his party ends up as the biggest group yet is excluded from power. But, opponents and experts argue that winning the most seats does not assure government participation and that any coalition with a parliamentary majority is a democratic outcome.
While the election result is hard to predict and government negotiations could take several months, political observers suggest that following the most extreme government in its recent history, the future government is likely to be a inclusive coalition headed by either the centre-left or moderate right.
Election Day Details
Voting locations, such as those in the Madurodam model village in the capital and the Anne Frank house in the capital city, opened at 7:30 AM (6.30am GMT) and will conclude at 9pm. A typically reliable exit poll is anticipated shortly after closing time.
Once voting concludes, an informateur will test potential governing alliances that could command a majority in the legislature. Potential partners will then negotiate an agreement for the coming term and must undergo a vote of confidence in the house before assuming power.
